With a Heavy Dose of Machine Learning
Oracle OpenWorld is a huge event, covering a plethora of topics. Here at Mint Jutras we focus exclusively on enterprise applications that run businesses. At the very core of those is Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), but these days it is often difficult to tell where ERP ends and other applications begin. And therefore we often stretch the boundaries of ERP and also write about Enterprise Performance Management (EPM), Human Capital Management (HCM) and also the “Customer Experience (CX).” While we leave coverage of hardware, infrastructure and data base technology to other analyst firms, enterprise applications provided plenty of food for thought at Oracle OpenWorld 2018.
According to Steve Miranda, Executive Vice President, Applications Product Development, the two key themes driving his development organization are movement to the cloud and speed of innovation. These two are closely related. Mint Jutras has long been a strong proponent of software as a service (SaaS) for many reasons, not the least of which is the ability to deliver more innovation – that is also easier to consume – faster. Mint Jutras would agree both of these themes are necessary and commendable. Both address the inertia holding many companies back from being fully active, successful participants in the rapidly changing, global, digital economy.
In the recent Mint Jutras report Digital Transformation: It’s Time to Develop a Sense of Urgency, we discussed digital transformation in the context of enterprise applications. Where are we on this journey? You might be surprised by the data we have collected that indicates enterprises might not be as well prepared for the global, digital economy as they think. What is Oracle doing to remedy that situation?
What Is Digital Transformation?
In our previous report, we began our discussion by posing the question: What is “digital transformation?” In so many ways, in the context of the software that runs your business, it is simply delivering on the original promise of ERP. Mint Jutras defines ERP as an integrated suite of modules that provides the operational and transactional system of record of your business. Even the earliest versions of ERP did indeed provide this system of record. But did they live up to the promise of an end-to-end, integrated solution that could streamline and automate all your business processes? Did they make your life easier? No. The technology necessary to deliver on that promise simply didn’t exist back then.
In the meantime, the pace of change and the pace of technology innovation continue to accelerate. Today that pace is staggering and fortunately, the technology needed to deliver on that promise finally exists, and a lot of it sits in Oracle’s vast portfolio of products. However, not all of Oracle’s customers are able to take full advantage of these technologies simply because they are still running older solutions. We would call them “legacy solutions,” or sometimes “heritage solutions” – legacy solutions you are proud of. Indeed Mr. Miranda is quick to point out, “So we don’t have legacy customers. They may be on older software. But our customers are still always modern and going forward.”
In response, we would argue: All the more reason to get them off that older software and onto something more modern and technology-enabled. They need the ability to transact business digitally in order to actively and fully participate in the global digital economy. This requires a level of connectivity that is simply not possible with older, legacy solutions. Many of these older solutions pre-date the Internet, and let’s face it… the Internet has forever changed our world. It has created the global digital economy and it has leveled the playing field for entry.
In the past, only the largest companies were able to establish a global presence and trade on a world-wide basis. Today any company, large or small, can establish a global presence, creating unprecedented opportunities. We see new markets, new economies, and even whole new middle classes emerging every day. But as you start to expand your global presence, be careful what you wish for. Without digitally transforming the solutions that run your business, windows of opportunity will close as quickly as they open.
The Role Cloud (and SaaS) Plays
The Internet has truly changed our lives both from a business, as well as a personal perspective. As noted earlier, the Internet has leveled the playing field, making it possible for any company, large or small, to create a global presence and be an active participant in the global, digital economy. The Internet enables the cloud as we know it today. The ability to access software any time, from anywhere is inherent in any solution that resides in the cloud, opening doors for improved and increased usage. And let’s face it – solutions only bring value if they are actually used.
So, web-enablement is the first step. You can simply take your software that is licensed and installed either on or off-premise and improve access. Web-enablement is conducive to supporting distributed users. But taking the next step and running software as a service (SaaS) brings additional value: No capital expenditure required; no need to build out a data center or maintain hardware. The elasticity of a solution, including the ability to expand the number of users without over-taxing the supporting hardware and software, is critical during growth spurts. When your plans involve expansion, bringing up remote sites rapidly and easily is an added benefit and requires less information technology (IT) staff on site. This is especially important when you venture into new, emerging economies where local IT talent may be scarce or nonexistent.
While cyber-security is an understandable concern to all today, if you are a small to midsize company better to have a security software like Fortinet, without it as well as a dedicated IT security expert on board, chances are you assume more risk than you would in a SaaS environment. Even if you are a large company with IT security experts on staff, there is no way you will be able to match the level of investment Oracle makes in terms of security from infrastructure and software and business practice. Plus Oracle can deliver the peace of mind of business continuity in the event of a disaster, either natural or man-made.
Based on many of the reasons noted above, the majority of companies today see cloud and SaaS in their future. While customers vote with their wallets, each year our Mint Jutras Enterprise Solution Study seeks more clarity on preferences for different deployment options, including preferences of those that might not have (yet) decided to make a move off legacy software.
We have been asking the following question for years now: If you were to consider a new solution today, which deployment options would you consider? Participants are allowed to select as many as they wish. A summary of answers since 2011 is shown in Figure 1. We skip every other year simply to fit the chart on the page. SaaS is currently the option most likely to be considered and the willingness to consider traditional on-premise solutions dropped off dramatically between 2011 and 2013 and has not recovered.
Figure 1: Deployment Options That Would Be Considered Today
Source: Mint Jutras Enterprise Solution Studies
*Option added in 2015
But don’t let these preferences tempt you into thinking SaaS solutions will be prevalent in the very near future. Why not? There are simply too many existing on-premise deployments out there today, including some of the brands in the Oracle product portfolio (JD Edwards, Peoplesoft, Siebel…) Our most recent 2018 Enterprise Solution Study found about 40% of business solutions today are deployed as SaaS (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Percentage of Business Software that is SaaS
Source: 2018 Mint Jutras Enterprise Solution Study
Our survey respondents estimate that percentage will grow steadily, but it will take many years before SaaS solutions dominate. Mint Jutras believes the momentum is building and the transition will happen somewhat faster than Figure 2 would indicate. But the average company running legacy solutions on premise obviously need a gentle push.
Oracle Makes Moving to SaaS Easier
And Oracle is providing that gentle push. Earlier this year it introduced a new program called SOAR, a prepackaged set of utilities and methodology to get customers to the cloud. For customers running solutions like JD Edwards, Peoplesoft, Siebel, and even the E-Business Suite, this means replacing solutions. While some software vendors offer the same solution on premise and as a SaaS solution, allowing customers to simply lift and shift existing deployments, this provides limited value. In doing so you sacrifice some of the benefits of a multi-tenant SaaS solution (see sidebar). With multi-tenant SaaS solutions, vendors maintain a single line of code. As a result, they can deliver more innovation, at a faster pace. – one of Oracle’s stated goals. With single-tenant solutions running in private clouds, vendors and their clients still face the complexity and disruption of traditional upgrades.
Lifting and shifting also means you are dragging along any limitations of prior implementations. Oftentimes customers delay moving off of old systems because of customizations and yet many of those customizations were required, not to provide market differentiation, but to address functional gaps or other limitations of older solutions, or simply because that was the way things were always done. Today’s solutions are far more configurable and extensible, eliminating much of the need for invasive code changes. If an existing or proposed customization doesn’t provide differentiation, Mint Jutras advises against doing it. And if it does provide a level of market differentiation, look for ways to accommodate it without mucking around in the code. Look for component-based architectures that allow you to extend, rather than modify solutions.
Mr. Miranda seems to agree with these recommendations. When asked about existing customer perceptions around customization he said,
“… the more complex you are and the older implementation you have, the more strongly I would advise you, ‘Do not inventory your customizations.’ If you want an interesting archeological expedition, knock yourself out. What happens is they find things that they don’t even know why they did it. They don’t know if it’s relevant anymore. We have customers who customized things 15 years ago. We’ve actually added it to E-Business Suite. But they haven’t had the time to unravel it. I’m not saying this in a critical way; it’s just a reality. What I strongly encourage the customers to do is look at the baseline product. And guess what? There may be things that are missing that we haven’t built. But you won’t need an inventory of your customization to figure that out. You will know what’s relevant.”
Through the SOAR program customers can see the depth and breadth of the product, and determine, with a level of certainty, how long it is going to take to get there. How much is it going to cost them? And when they come out the other end, what they will see in terms of improvement in business practice. In Mr. Miranda’s words:
“So, based on our experience of existing customers, we developed a set of utilities with Oracle Consulting that can take what we think is a reasonable scope – a certain number of integrations, certain number of reports, certain number of extensions. We’ve done the work to automate the data migration. We know how much it’s going to cost in terms of each migration or each extension or each report. And so, we can quickly give you an estimate. Here is your size and shape. Here is your cost. Here is your time. And here’s what we believe, based on a typical customer, will be the amount of business process change/improvement.”
So, cloud is the first step towards speeding innovation, but there’s more to it than that. You also need some foundational technologies, which we still find lacking in the majority of businesses today (Table 1).
Development platforms and microservices architectures, on which applications are built, are the perfect example. For the reader with a technical background, a microservice architecture is defined (by Wikipedia) as an architectural style that structures an application as a collection of loosely coupled services. For those nontechnical readers, think of it as constructing a solution from a set of Lego building blocks.
Table 1: Embedded (or foundational) digital technologies
Source: 2018 Mint Jutras Enterprise Solution Study
Think about how you build a structure from Legos. Each Lego block is made of the same kind of material and is attached (connected) to the other Lego blocks the same way. In many ways they are interchangeable. But by choosing different colors and sizes, and connecting them with a different design, you can make a structure that is very unique. And once constructed, if you want to change it, decoupling some of the blocks and replacing them doesn’t destroy the parts that are not affected. There is far less disruption introduced than if you had constructed it with a hammer and nails.
These platforms and technologies provide a level of agility, configurability and extensibility to today’s applications to help us respond to change. Oracle has invested heavily in both its Platform as a Service (PaaS) and its Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), resulting in its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI). It is now turning its attention to other foundational technologies like machine learning and natural language processing (NLP). But it is approaching these differently than some of its major competitors. Instead of providing these technologies as tool sets, Oracle is embedding them into applications so that customers of all sizes (not just those with deep pockets and large development staffs) can take advantage of them “right out of the box.”
Throughout the entire suite of application products, the concept is to turn what used to be “input-receiving” apps into “recommendation” apps. Examples include suggesting the next-best offer or the next-best action in CRM. Or they might help prioritize employee recruiting in HCM or make audit suggestions and cash-management recommendations in ERP.
Digital assistants (bots) will be available pervasively throughout the ecosystem, not only from your phone and through SMS, but also through Slack, Siri, Alexa, or Google Home. The way people work is changing, so the applications must change too.
Mint Jutras believes this approach to embedding these technologies is smart. Notice Table 1 captures not only current adoption rates, but also plans for adoption. We also allowed survey respondents to indicate where they expected software vendors to simply provide these technologies with no additional purchase required (the next to the last column). Few are demanding this today, or even expecting them. And yet Oracle is working on delivering them, much like Apple delivered Siri. Apple customers didn’t demand the ability to converse with their mobile devices. Apple just delivered it. Other device manufacturers followed suit. Pretty soon virtual assistants became commonplace features. And people got hooked. It was only after the value was recognized that people willingly went out and bought stand-alone devices like the Amazon Echo Dot and Google Home.
Now is the time to bring them into the enterprise, much like they were insinuated into our personal lives. Pretty soon these types of technologies will be generally available throughout the Oracle Cloud, but you won’t be able to take advantage of them if you are still stuck on old legacy solutions.
Develop a Sense of Urgency
As we noted in our report on Digital Transformation, it is time to develop a sense of urgency – the same kind of urgency Oracle has demonstrated in urging customers to move to the cloud in order to speed innovation. The digital age is upon us. The pace of change and the pace of technology innovation has accelerated beyond anyone’s expectations and it doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. We live in disruptive times.
We asked our 2018 survey participants to assess the level of risk their industries faced in terms of the potential for disruption.
Figure 3: What risk do you face in your industry being disrupted?
Source: 2018 Mint Jutras Enterprise Solution Study
While all but 10% acknowledged some level of risk, the majority (84%) feel the risk is low to medium rather than high or imminent. Yet we feel compelled to ask the question: How do you think the taxi industry would have answered this question on the eve of the launch of Uber? Nobody saw that disruption coming and therefore few (if any) were adequately prepared.
Disruptive change is nothing new, but the speed with which it can impact business models and revenue flows has certainly changed. While it took a decade for the personal computer to disrupt the computer industry, and years for digital photography to disrupt the film industry, it took less time for Netflix to put Blockbuster stores out of business. And how long did it take Airbnb to impact the hospitality industry or Uber to disrupt the taxi industry? These kinds of disruptions can happen virtually overnight, creating new ways of transacting business that can have a cascading impact on both front and back office applications.
This type of disruption might come from a variety of sources. We asked survey participants to select the single most likely cause of potential disruption (Figure 4).
Figure 4: What is most likely to cause this disruption?
Source: Mint Jutras 2016 Enterprise Solution Study
While the threat from new, innovative products may have the lesser disruptive impact on business processes and business models, it does require companies to place more emphasis on innovation. Windows of opportunity can open and close very quickly. Of course an agile ERP solution isn’t all you need to accelerate new product introductions, but you also don’t want it to be the reason you can’t respond to new market demands or take advantage of new and unprecedented opportunities.
New ways of selling/pricing existing products might include subscriptions to services or outcomes that replace outright sale of products. Rather than selling a machine, you might invoice for uptime or hours of production. You might ship a physical product for free and charge for usage and/or consumables. Software companies that used to offer perpetual licenses might now also (or instead) offer subscriptions to software as a service (SaaS). These types of changes can have a major impact on how you invoice, recognize revenue and manage cash. And these changes must be reflected in your ERP solution.
The impact of entirely new business models is even harder to predict because of the inherent “newness.” You don’t want your ERP solution to be the reason you can’t capitalize on that brilliant new idea that can create a new revenue stream. Your ERP must adapt as your business evolves.
And yet many hesitate to replace or upgrade aging solutions that have no hope of ever connecting with or leveraging the emerging digital technologies required to survive in today’s digital economy. Perhaps they are looking for proof they will not be taking a step backwards in moving to a newly developed solution. Indeed, there are some industries that may (still) be better served by some of its older, deeply entrenched products – industries like food and beverage or project-based businesses. These industries are still on the horizon for the Oracle Cloud solutions.
But perhaps the best customer reference for a wide range of industries comes from Oracle itself. The diversity of Oracle’s business is a testament to the breadth of the solution in a world of changing business models. Oracles runs:
- an on-premises software business
- a subscription software business
- a reasonably large consulting services business
- a reasonably large, assemble-to-order, hardware business
- a procure-to-order business for Micros on smaller machines
We wrap up with a quote from Mr. Miranda.
“We spent a ton of time combining feature functions we needed, technical innovations that either we built or the industry built, so now we have what we think is an extremely compelling, deeply functional, and differentiated solutions in just about every area: EPM, ERP certainly, now with Supply Chain Manufacturing as well…. Core HR including global core HR, benefits, payroll; and then CX being sales, service, marketing, both B2B marketing … and B2C marketing…. It is just an incredibly feature-rich area on top of those baseline components.”
The entirety of Oracle’s business runs on the same software in the cloud that all of its customers are running. That spells confidence and commitment.